A Century of Plenty

"This book is as persuasive as it is useful. Well-written and accessible, yet the research is excellent."-Joel Mokyr, 2025 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences

Can you imagine even the poorest country in the world achieving the prosperity and quality of life of today's Switzerland-by 2100? Seems crazy, doesn't it? After all, we live in uncertain times. But we have pulled off marvels before. Human advances over the past 100 years have been unprecedented. Can we achieve another century of progress?

This book, a major research effort from the McKinsey Global Institute, explores the advances of the past century and what drove them-what we call the progress machine. It then investigates the possibility of a world of plenty by 2100 in which every person lives at, or above, the levels of prosperity enjoyed by Switzerland today. Such a future would require the global economy to be eight times bigger than it is today. Is this realistic? Will we have enough energy, food, metals and minerals? Can we keep innovating quickly enough? Can we deliver plenty while protecting our planet?

We ran the numbers, and the answer is yes.

But progress is a choice. Making what is possible probable needs a new narrative. A story in which growth is good, plenty is achievable, and people are inspired to innovate and build. Again and again, optimists have been on the right side of history. We believe they will be once more.

About the authors

Sven Smit is a McKinsey senior partner and the former chair of the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). During his 35-year McKinsey career he also led the firm's European region and the Strategy and Corporate Finance Practice. He is based in Amsterdam.

Chris Bradley is a McKinsey senior partner and director of MGI. Along with Sven, he was a coauthor of the best-selling book Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick. He is based in Sydney.

Nick Leung is a McKinsey senior partner and director of MGI. In his 33 years at the firm, he was chairman of McKinsey's Greater China region for over a decade, and leader of the Corporate Finance Practice in Asia. He is based in Hong Kong.

Marc Canal is an MGI senior fellow and leads research on global progress, with a focus on productivity, demographics, human capital, and technology. He is based in Barcelona.

The McKinsey Global Institute is McKinsey's independent research arm, established in 1990. This book draws on that long heritage, and on the specific contributions of our coauthor team: Janet Bush, MGI executive editor; Sherlyn Chen, engagement manager; Suhayl Chettih, MGI fellow; and MGI partners Jan Mischke and Jeongmin Seong.