Engineering Risk in Natural Resources Management

This book provides a system framework to observe, detect and monitor changes in geophysical time series for the purpose of managing natural -- mostly water -- resources. The institutional aspects of risk are considered to be an integral part of the management system. Original and novel features include the definitions of institutions, the development of forecasting and control schemes under non-steady inputs and the point of view of practitioners, all embedded in a common framework for reliability and risk analysis. The first three chapters provide the model-based systems design and control framework, and then the methodology for physical and stochastic analysis of the changing forcing function and hydrometeorological input series. The next two chapters deal with consequences of climate change, in particular, its potential effect on river flows, sea level rise, water quality and extreme floods respectively. The last two chapters develop engineering decisions, policy considerations and case examples. Whereas most reliability and risk analysis books have dealt with steady-state conditions, we are specifically focusing on the difficult problems of observations and management to be done in a non-stationary environment.