Forecasting Crime Rate in Southwest of Nigeria Using ARIMA(2,0,1)

Forecasting Crime Rate in Southwest Of Nigeria using ARIMA(2,0,1) is a research work that deals with the alarming rate of crime in South Western part of Nigeria, Ejigbo local Government in Lagos as a case study. this alarming crime rate is owing to the cognizance of the fact that there are many factors that are contributing to this anti social behavior both among the youth and adults. In this research work we have utilized the crime data of six crime variables: robbery, kidnapping, rape, murder, theft and drug trafficking obtained from the data bank of the Nigerian Police Divisional Head Quarters Ejigbo-Lagos State for a period of thirteen years (2002-2014) .ARIMA (2,0,1) model was used for short term crime forecasting. The ARIMA (2,0,1) is a vital tool for major crime prediction in Ejigbo Local Government Area in Lagos State, Nigeria because it has been used by the crime data collected and a one year-ahead crime forecast was made. This forecast is significant because the adoption of the proposed model by the Nigeria Police force, Ejigbo division will reduce the menace in the area. It will also serve as an opening for further research.