Mixed Signals

By late 2025, the American economy was sending unmistakably mixed signals. Growth surged at a 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter-the strongest performance in two years-suggesting an economy gaining momentum. Yet beneath the surface, the picture was far less reassuring. Job creation slowed, hiring softened, and major sectors such as construction and manufacturing continued to contract. Consumer spending, long the engine of U.S. growth, flattened.
These conflicting trends carry serious implications for economic policy. At their most recent meeting, Federal Reserve officials projected continued "moderate" expansion but warned of rising risks: a weakening labor market on one side and persistent inflation pressures on the other. The balance of these risks divided policymakers and deepened uncertainty about the path ahead.
This book unpacks the forces behind these diverging signals-why growth appears strong while the job market falters-and explains what they mean for America's economic future. Written for a general audience, it offers a clear, accessible guide to understanding the shifting dynamics shaping the U.S. economy today.
The authors have also published:
Economic Deceleration
Harnessing Price Inflation
The Era of Two Speeds
Strengthening U.S. Economic Policy
The Future of the American Economy 2050
U.S. Economic Trends and Challenges 1970-2050