Re–Examining the Five–Point Consensus and ASEAN′s Response to the Myanmar Crisis

The Five-Point Consensus (5PC) encapsulates ASEANs response to the Myanmar crisis precipitated by the militarys seizure of power on 1February 2021. As criticism about the effectiveness of ASEAN continue to mount, the current chair of the association has proposed the appointment of a permanent special envoy by extending its term beyond one year. In addition to revisiting its tenure, ASEAN should also consider providing the special envoy with the necessary political backing, adequate funding and efficient administrative support. More importantly, ASEAN needs to expand its mandate from an exclusive focus on conflict management to conflict resolution. Notwithstanding valid criticisms of the 5PC, it remains a significant development as the singular ASEAN document agreed upon by all the ASEAN Leaders, including the concurrence of Myanmars Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. The 5PC is by no means a perfect framework. It lacks a clear end game beyond the advocacy for dialogue. From a strategic perspective, ASEAN made few attempts to leverage on carrots and sticks and relied heavily on persuading a disinterested Myanmar leadership on the implementation of the 5PC. The ability of the AHA Centre (ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management) to deliver humanitarian assistance to Myanmar is constrained by its limited resources. ASEAN unity and support for an upgrade of the 5PC cannot be taken for granted as Cambodia, Laos and Thailand have broken ranks in recognizing the State Administration Council (SAC) bilaterally by appointing new ambassadors to Myanmar. The SACs notion of calling for national elections is rightly seen by ASEAN as irrelevant and ill-timed. However, the idea of an election led by ASEAN or the United Nations or one supervised internationally may be worth considering at a later time as a possible solution to the current impasse. Cambodias experience with the United Nations Transitional Authority on Cambodia (UNTAC) may offer some positive lessons on national reconciliation and conflict resolution.